The Frisconian · call the city before it happens

Predict SF

Preseason · Round 1 of 6 · open until 9 p.m.

How many times will SF police be dispatched between 9 p.m. Monday and 9 p.m. Tuesday, Election Day?

The line1,828The same window, last eight weeks: low 1,616, high 1,981. It usually misses by about 3%.

1 call locked so far. Nobody sees anyone's number until 9 p.m. Settles Wednesday.

How this round settles

DataSF, police dispatched calls for service (real-time and closed files). Window: 2026-11-02T21:00:00-08:00 to 2026-11-03T21:00:00-08:00. The source.

{
 "method": "mean of the 8 latest complete windows of the same shape, every 7 days back; usual miss = median miss of an 8-window line over the 8 latest windows (|ln((line+1)/(actual+1))|)",
 "feed": {
  "kind": "soda_count",
  "line_dataset": "2zdj-bwza",
  "settle_dataset": "gnap-fj3t",
  "time": "received_datetime",
  "distinct": "cad_number"
 },
 "windows": [
  [
   "2026-10-26T21:00:00",
   "2026-10-27T21:00:00",
   1862
  ],
  [
   "2026-10-19T21:00:00",
   "2026-10-20T21:00:00",
   1762
  ],
  [
   "2026-10-12T21:00:00",
   "2026-10-13T21:00:00",
   1616
  ],
  [
   "2026-10-05T21:00:00",
   "2026-10-06T21:00:00",
   1929
  ],
  [
   "2026-09-28T21:00:00",
   "2026-09-29T21:00:00",
   1825
  ],
  [
   "2026-09-21T21:00:00",
   "2026-09-22T21:00:00",
   1836
  ],
  [
   "2026-09-14T21:00:00",
   "2026-09-15T21:00:00",
   1981
  ],
  [
   "2026-09-07T21:00:00",
   "2026-09-08T21:00:00",
   1812
  ],
  [
   "2026-08-31T21:00:00",
   "2026-09-01T21:00:00",
   1961
  ],
  [
   "2026-08-24T21:00:00",
   "2026-08-25T21:00:00",
   1864
  ],
  [
   "2026-08-17T21:00:00",
   "2026-08-18T21:00:00",
   1762
  ],
  [
   "2026-08-10T21:00:00",
   "2026-08-11T21:00:00",
   1611
  ],
  [
   "2026-08-03T21:00:00",
   "2026-08-04T21:00:00",
   1715
  ],
  [
   "2026-07-27T21:00:00",
   "2026-07-28T21:00:00",
   1849
  ],
  [
   "2026-07-20T21:00:00",
   "2026-07-21T21:00:00",
   1782
  ],
  [
   "2026-07-13T21:00:00",
   "2026-07-14T21:00:00",
   1721
  ]
 ],
 "pulled_at": "2026-11-02T00:30:46"
}

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